Robust growth hampered by a gloomy regional environment
After experiencing a strong recovery and proving highly resilient in the wake of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, economic activity should slow in 2024 but remain above the eurozone average (Coface forecasts GDP of 0.9%). Household consumption is expected to be the main growth driver, thanks to the resilience of household purchasing power, with inflationary pressures easing and wages continuing to rise. After accelerating over the course of 2023 and recording average of 3.5% in November, compared with 2.8% in January, wages will remain strong in 2024.
However, activity will be hampered by sluggish external demand. While Spain recorded a record tourist year in 2023, notably on back of the return of foreign customers, sector recovery is set to slow. In addition, exports will continue to be limited by the weak growth of its neighbours, since 62% of its exports are destined for the rest of the European Union (68% including the United Kingdom). At the same time, companies will be faced with substantial financing costs (5% on average in October 2023) given that rates will remain high throughout the year despite the fact that the ECB will probably begin a cycle of key rate cuts in 2024. Private investment will be held back by this adverse environment. Amid this gloomy outlook, activity will nevertheless still be supported by European funds, receiving almost €80 billion in grants and €83 billion in loans for the period 2021-2026, amounting to a total equivalent to 12% of its GDP. Since less than a third of this amount was actually disbursed between 2021 and 2023, disbursements are expected to accelerate sharply between 2024 and 2026.
Progressive consolidation of public accounts
The 2024 budget, which should be approved during the first quarter, should confirm the gradual consolidation of public accounts. However, these will still remain largely in deficit, having deteriorated sharply during the health and energy crises. The reduction in the deficit will mainly result from the gradual withdrawal of most of the measures introduced to limit the impact of rising energy prices on households (reduction in fuel prices and taxes on electricity prices). However, the new government has extended the reduction in VAT on basic foodstuffs until June 2024, as well as free public transport for unemployed people and young people until the end of 2024. At the same time, the tax on the windfall profits of banks and energy companies (€3 billion in revenue in 2023) will be extended until 2025. As the ECB has begun to reduce its asset portfolio by not reinvesting some of the bonds reaching maturity, the cost of financing will rise even further. In addition, the country will have to cope with the return of European budgetary rules, although the new agreement reached at the end of 2023 will allow a more flexible and gradual budgetary adjustment path. In this context, the sustainability of the very high public debt will be one of the challenges in the medium term.
In addition, the current account surplus posted by the country since 2013 is set to shrink in 2024, due to the fall in foreign demand. The large surplus on the balance of services (expected to be close to 6% of GDP in 2023) will offset the structural deficits on the balance of goods, largely attributable to the country's energy dependence, and on the balance of income (remittances from the Latin American and Moroccan diasporas to their countries of origin). Despite a downward trend in recent years, the country's net foreign debt remains among the highest in the European Union (57.4% of GDP in Q2 2023).
Political instability heightened by the new coalition's dependence on the Catalan pro-independence party Junts
The outgoing socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) managed to hold on to power despite coming second in early general elections in the summer of 2023. Without an absolute majority (121 seats out of 350), the left-wing party was still in a better position to form a government than its rival Alberto Núñez Feijóo's right-wing Popular Party. As a result, Sánchez once again had to form a governing coalition with his main far-left ally Sumar (31), EH Bildu (6), ERC (7), PNV (5), BNG (1) and the Canarian Coalition (1). However, this time Pedro Sanchez also needed the support of the Catalan pro-independence party Junts (7) to achieve an absolute majority. To achieve this, Sánchez defended the adoption of a controversial amnesty law pardoning Catalan separatists involved in the organization of the independence referendum in 2017, including Junts leader Carles Puigdemont, who went into exile in Belgium. Although Sánchez's coalition government was fairly stable in its last term, the new government's dependence on Catalan and Basque pro-independence parties could make governance difficult and increases the risk of political instability. All the more so as Junts has reiterated that its support for the government throughout its term would be conditional on the organisation of an independence referendum, to which Sanchez remains opposed for the time being.