A return to growth in 2024
The Irish economy slowed in 2023 and GDP was forecast to fall to around 1.5% That said, it is still around 30% higher than the 2019 level, driven by the continued strong presence of multinational enterprises. While the contraction in GDP in 2023 was prompted by the slowdown in activity and investments of multinationals, the rebalancing of their activity is expected to drive much of the growth in 2024, and their presence in pharmaceuticals, IT and medical equipment sectors is expected to remain strong in the coming year. Lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will also improve multinationals’ investments in 2024.
Despite the GDP slowdown in 2023, Ireland's domestic consumption proved robust, buoyed by an increasing population and a growing labour market, which is fostering economic resilience. Ireland’s steadily growing population is fuelling domestic demand, while a strong job market and rising real wages is empowering consumers. Despite potential challenges, the strength of Ireland's demographic and economic factors is positioning domestic consumption as a growth driver and is thus overshadowing concerns over unemployment.
Ireland witnessed a substantial 25% spike in corporate insolvencies in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic 2019 levels, after government interventions helped suppress insolvencies between 2020 and 2023. The upswing, though widespread across sectors, notably affected the hospitality industry. As 2024 unfolds, there are growing apprehensions tied to the end of pivotal Covid-related measures. The Covid Act, which raised the threshold conditions for creditors filing winding-up petitions, and the conclusion of debt warehousing that allowed companies extended debt repayments, are poised to cease. The end of these measures raises concerns about the potential for a continued sharp rise in insolvencies in 2024, posing significant challenges for businesses navigating the post-pandemic economic landscape.
Fiscally stable and generous public finances
2023 saw another year of positive public balance and a decline in public debt, even if it was smaller than preceding years. The economic trajectory appears promising in 2024, with a continuation of favourable fiscal conditions. This surplus is underpinned by robust tax revenues stemming from taxes on labour and the recent adjustment of the corporate tax rate from 12.5% to 15%, in compliance with OECD agreements which was enacted from January 2024. Despite the government's commitment to substantial expenditure growth, the strong tax revenue growth positions Ireland to sustain its financial health. The government continues to benefit from the strong domestic tax situation and can promise popular (and economically important) measures while still showing a good public balance.
The current account balance in Ireland remains volatile, largely influenced by the activities and investments of multinational enterprises in the country. Projections indicate that the balance will stay positive in both 2023 and 2024, primarily driven by a robust balance of goods. However, the balance of services tends to hover around breakeven and is heavily contingent on imports of research and development services, particularly the transfer of intellectual property assets from foreign subsidiaries to Irish counterparts. Despite an overall positive trend, the structural deficit in the income balance persists due to substantial dividend repatriation by multinational corporations, accounting for around 30% of GDP. Excluding these multinational-related effects, Ireland has maintained a current account surplus since 2015, reaching approximately 3% of GDP in 2022.
2024 could be an election year
Ireland's political landscape is relatively stable most of the time but is also navigating stubborn challenges, primarily driven by intense public pressure on housing. Insufficient construction and rising property prices is exacerbating the crisis, which is unfortunately offset by "not in my backyard" sentiment among current homeowners. The housing predicament is intertwined with the immigration issue, as rising legal immigration and asylum seekers further strain the already limited housing resources. The repercussions of this volatile mix were evident in the November riots in Dublin. What began as a stabbing incident in North Dublin escalated into a riot, fuelled in part by far-right elements.
The next Irish general elections do not have to be held until March 2025, but a snap election is nonetheless on the cards in 2024. The political landscape is marked by significant shifts. Pro-united Ireland party Sinn Féin has seen a notable rise in polls, reaching around 30% from their 25% standing in the last general election. Meanwhile, the current coalition government comprising of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and the Green Party is collectively polling at approximately 40%, which falls short of a majority. If the trends persist, Sinn Féin could emerge as the largest party in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, possibly challenging the political dynamics on the island. Additionally, the upcoming European Parliament election is scheduled for June 2024.