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阿拉伯聯合大公國Accelerating growth, driven by private consumption, hydroelectricity and tourism
In 2025, growth will be driven by private consumption (86% of GDP), boosted by remittances from expatriate workers and an expected slight fall in inflation due to lower global food and oil prices. However, the damage caused to rice production by the floods in October 2024 will maintain inflationary pressures.
Public and private investment will continue to benefit from monetary easing, with the central bank cutting its key rate by 2 percentage points between May 2023 and November 2024, to 6.5%. Numerous projects are under way in hydroelectricity, highways and the development of a new electricity transmission line.
Growth should also be underpinned by a rise in services exports, driven by a rebound in tourist arrivals. Electricity exports will also benefit from the agreement signed between Nepal and India in early 2024. This 25-year agreement allows India to purchase 10,000 MW of Nepalese electricity over a ten-year period. In addition, a trilateral power-sharing agreement, which came into force in November 2024, allows Nepal to export 40 MW of electricity annually to Bangladesh via India.
Reduction in the public deficit, but a weakened current account surplus
The public deficit is expected to fall with the increase in tax revenues, mainly from tourism, remittances from expatriate workers and grants. In addition, the country benefits from the IMF's Extended Credit Facility (ECF), with an allocation of US$376 million, of which US$128.3 million remains to be disbursed. In addition, public debt is expected to fall slightly.
The current account surplus is set to shrink as a result of a widening trade deficit on back of increased domestic demand for food and fuel, as well as the climatic hazards that limit local agricultural production. The increase in net electricity exports will be insufficient to offset the rise in imports. Nevertheless, the rebound in tourism receipts, international aid in the form of concessional loans and transfers from expatriate workers will continue to support the current account. Foreign exchange reserves should remain at a comfortable level (equivalent to 9.1 months of imports at the end of March 2024).
New government, but chronic instability
In July 2024, Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, leader of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (CPN-UML), was appointed Prime Minister after the loss of the vote of confidence by his predecessor Pushpa Kamal Dahal from the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) (CPN-MC), who had held the post since the general and provincial elections of November 2022. This succession reflects the country's chronic political instability, characterised by frequent dissolutions and constant rotation of power: Nepal has seen 14 governments in place since the transition to parliamentary democracy in 2008. The new ruling coalition is made up of the CPN-UML, the centre-left Nepali Congress Party (NC), with an agreement for alternating governance until 2027, and several smaller parties. With 167 of the 275 members of the House of Representatives, the government enjoys a comfortable majority, potentially offering it greater stability. However, the coalition remains threatened by the rivalries and personal ambitions of its leaders, who are determined to preserve their influence.
Nepal is striving to balance its relations with China and India. With the latter, its main trading partner and a major contributor of development aid, economic trade links remain strong despite persistent territorial disputes. However, China is exerting a growing influence through significant cooperation in infrastructure, trade and tourism. In December 2024, Beijing and Kathmandu renewed their partnership by signing a three-year framework agreement under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), extending the 2017 Memorandum of Understanding. Last, Nepal is continuing to strengthen its ties with the United States, benefiting from a $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation Compact that came into effect in 2023, along with support for socio-economic development provided by the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
